A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the country and triggered disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in universities but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Both composes two essays that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses something to gain from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
