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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple formula. It commonly serves as a kind of mea culpa. Sorry we misjudged your team in our pre-campaign forecasts.

On paper, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who engineered the biggest resurgence receives the prize. In practice, it creates an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring excellent coaching or just the most shocking shock.

Yet the latest competition is fundamentally unique. The list of nominees is exceptionally strong. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent division champions declining and recent strugglers rising collectively. Under an ordinary year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the clear favorite. But in this wild and entertaining year, he's up against multiple other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the projected vote ought to look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by signal-callers. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. In the right environment, Williams has been afforded the chance to display his special talent. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's prolonged excellence. With his guidance, Williams has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the system instead of going rogue. It is an offense constructed solely in the coach's vision: a physical run game, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that springs wide receiver receivers consistently. The QB has taken advantage. And when openings weren't there, he's been able to conjure big plays out of nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a defined offensive philosophy. Virtually every gamble – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has worked. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a leader who walked into the building with the kind of expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive genius but the type of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

During a ordinary season, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. But this isn't a typical season!

The area where Johnson's case runs a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several wins behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for long-term winning. But Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has orchestrated a rapid turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall ball of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has excelled at the off-field aspects, which was not a given following his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the perfect coaching mix of youth and veteran savvy, Coen hired first-timers. From the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. Yet Coen has pulled everyone and all elements together.

Following an initial strong start, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the team stumbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking reliable ones. Coen refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are evident. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's number three seed. He gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a new signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has cooled off since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the season, placing him only a single place ahead of other QBs.

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