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China has sent its coast guard into the waters of the Senkaku islands and unmanned aerial vehicles near remote Japanese territory as Beijing escalates tensions over the Japanese prime minister’s comments regarding Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

This past Sunday, the Chinese coast guard announced that its ships conducted a “rights enforcement patrol” through the territorial seas of the Senkaku, which are under the control of Japan but also asserted as territory by China.

“Chinese maritime patrol unit 1307 performed surveillance within the maritime jurisdiction of the Senkaku islands. This was a lawful patrol operation undertaken by the Chinese maritime authorities to protect its sovereign claims,” the statement said.

Bilateral Tensions

China and Japan have repeatedly faced off around the islands but the recent developments come amid an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japanese prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, told parliament that if China attack the self-governing island of Taiwan it could trigger a armed reaction from Tokyo.

That sparked an angry response from China, which has indicated it demands a retraction from the Japanese official.

Island's Stance

Beijing asserts the island as its own territory and plans to incorporate it under what it terms “unification”. It has not ruled out the use of force. Taiwan’s government and people overwhelmingly reject the prospect of Chinese rule – choosing to preserve the current situation without formally announcing independence, but vowing to defend themselves if necessary.

An military assault by China would threaten to spiral into a international confrontation, potentially involving the US and other allies including Japan, which has land just 68 miles from the island.

Defense Operations

On the island, the military authorities reported this weekend that it had observed 30 Chinese military aircraft, multiple naval vessels and one government vessel, which was likely the maritime patrol, operating around the island over the previous day.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to multiple UAVs flying between Taiwan and the Japan's territory off its northeastern shoreline, seeming to travel unusually near to Yonaguni. Chinese military transits there are not rare, but infrequent, and Beijing's defense operations in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been minimal in the past month.

Late on Saturday, the defense officials said China had been conducting another “joint combat patrol” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It noted the island had dispatched military assets to track the developments. Taiwan documents these operations a couple of times a month as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Political Strain

Japan has been experiencing increased strain from China since the Japanese official made her comments, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in the Japanese city triggering an official complaint from Tokyo by commenting that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

China then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first time in more than two years, and China’s defence ministry stated that any Japanese intervention would be doomed to fail.

Travel and Education Advisory

On Friday, Beijing cautioned its citizens against travelling to Japan, leading Japan to request China to take “appropriate measures”, though it provided no details.

Multiple carriers from China said on Saturday that tickets to Japan could be cancelled without penalty.

Adding to the tensions, China’s government on Sunday urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it described as an unstable security environment.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a significant decrease in the population of learners from China could have a detrimental effect on Japanese universities. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to official data. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the single biggest group.

Media Response

Earlier this weekend, a Chinese state media editorial charged the Japanese official with performing a diplomatic maneuver that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a limited skirmish; it would likely draw in other nations, including the United States, and could rapidly escalate to a large-scale conflict with unimaginable consequences.”

Strategic Positions

The administration in Taipei says the island's residents alone determine their destiny. Officials in Tokyo have traditionally refrained from publicly mentioning Taiwan when addressing potential conflicts, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also favoured by Japan's primary defense partner, the United States.

Nevertheless, Beijing's governing party says the unification of Taiwan with the People’s Republic of China is “inevitable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, Beijing has also been increasing its political operations and its statements towards Taiwan.